Austria Decides

A new government will be elected on October 15th. It’s definitely nationalist, it’s just the flavour to be decided. Here’s this resident outsider’s take on it. For once I’m pleased I have no vote.

Key Players

President Alexander Van der Bellen

Economics Professor and former Green Party leader who beat out the ‘acceptable face’ of the far-right, Norbert Hofer, in last year’s drawn-out presidential election. The presidency currently stands as a constitutional arrangement rather than a position with legislative power. Although the president can veto ministerial selections if they are not deemed to be in the best interests of the country (i.e. too radical).

ÖVP Österreiche Volks Partei (the People’s Party)
Christian, democratic and conservative party. Pro-European (with conditions)

ÖVP Leader Sebastian Kurz, the ‘Wunderkind’

Would be the youngest ever Chancellor at age 31. Former Foreign and Integration Minister. Credits himself with closing the Balkan refugee route. He has created an election campaign around himself that has neo-liberal economics and social division at its heart. The party colour is black, but his campaign uses a soft dog-whistle turquoise blue (FPÖ party colour is cornflower blue) and the website for the campaign is to his own site, rather than the party site. Has scavenged the FPÖ vote by including nationalist rhetoric, but with a softer tone, e.g. More money for compulsory integration courses whereas the FPÖ would ban integration courses altogether (tax money should not be spent on (Muslim) immigrants). Both parties however would refuse some migrants access to state services such as kindergartens.

FPÖ Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (the Fascist Freedom Party)

Right-wing populist and national-conservative. In the state elections in 2010 FPÖ resonated strongly with youth who were feeling the effects of poor job opportunities. FPÖ is eurosceptic and has expressed an interest in joining the Visegrad group of countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to advance shared interests.

FPÖ Leader Heinz-Christian Strache, neo-nazi sympathiser

Campaigning on ‘fairness' and tax cuts (for the wealthy). His version of fairness excludes foreigners (in particular people from the Middle East) and his rhetoric is fear of the islamisation of Austria. The campaign harks back to the golden age of film with nostalgic storylines of mama's cooking, and certainly no veils. The hoardings include black & white photos of Strache, which, if looked at in a certain way, suggests a former Austrian who led Germany to destruction in the 1930-40 era

SPÖ Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (The Social Democrats)

Economically left wing, socially liberal and pro-European with ties to the Austrian Trade Union Federation and the Austrian Chamber of Labour

SPÖ Leader Christian Kern

Working class boy made good credentials.

Former CEO of ÖBB (the Austrian national railways), pension reform, healthcare and workers sharing in the fruits of a revived economy figure strongly in his campaigning. He has also shifted his immigration rhetoric to the right in-line with the populist visions of the other parties.

Bit parts:

NEÖS The New Austria and Liberal Forum - Liberal, pro-European and calls itself economically centrist. 

Die Grünen The Greens - Have fractured this year and are not a strong force in the election

Peter Pilz Former member of the Green Party - Running this year as an independent, campaigning mainly on political corruption. The Peter Pilz's List, which he heads, is a group of intellectuals, artists and entrepreneurs, critical toward the establishment. Opinion polls show him with similar approval rates as the Greens

Election Background

The last general election was held on 29th September, 2013. The FPÖ made huge gains at the expense of both ÖVP and SPÖ, based in a large part, on their response to a slowdown in the economy and an anti-migrant/anti-Islamic sentiment. These concerns reflected those of other European countries. However, Austria’s history focusses the minds of many journalists, commentators and international politicians, and the relatively recent experience of electing a far-right government (led by the xenophobic Jörg Haider) led to active condemnation from the EU. After the election, the SPÖ remained the largest party but progressive tendencies under the previous Chancellor, Werner Faymann led to rejection of FPÖ as a coalition partner. The ÖVP and FPÖ could have formed a government, but the ÖVP, rejected the swing to the far-right and decided to continue its previous grand coalition with the SPÖ, leaving FPÖ in the cold. This was not a popular move at all.

Werner Faymann retained his post as Chancellor, and ÖVP took over the finance role, and also immediately promoted the then 26 year-old Sebastian Kurz to Foreign Minister. Both of these moves added to the rapidly-growing dissent of the party faithful. SPÖ and ÖVP battled over the stagnating economy and rising unemployment, along with the quickly escalating Syrian refugee crisis. The humanitarian response of SPÖ to the refugee crisis led to a fall in opinions polls for SPÖ and Faymann resigned in May, 2016. Kern took over as party leader and Chancellor, giving an immediate rise in SPÖ approval ratings. Reinhold Mitterlehner, leader of ÖVP and deputy Chancellor, publicly threatened to quit the coalition government if the Social Democrat partners did not toughen their policies on migrants and shrink the welfare state. He resigned in May 2017. ÖVP then installed Sebastian Kurz as leader in July, which saw it immediately overtake SPÖ in popularity. These changes led to the implosion of the grand coalition and the snap election.

The Polls 

State of Play

SPÖ looks to have lost its last, albeit slim, chance to make a dent in the ÖVP lead with a scandal that came to light at the end of September, two weeks before the election. The consultants working for SPÖ were behind a racist Facebook campaign that was designed to undermine Kurz, (that he wasn’t as tough on immigration as he made out and maybe was a bit too close to Jewish interests) and to look like it came from the FPÖ. Added to this, is the claim that ÖVP tried to lure the consultants away from SPÖ to ÖVP. SPÖ has lost the moral authority to attack FPÖ on its xenophobic and anti-Semitic posturing. The outcome of this is that SPÖ have given at least 3 percent in popularity to FPÖ, leaving them in third place.

Although there is no evidence that SPÖ was directly involved in this Schmutzkübel (dirt bucket) campaign, it led to the resignation of the SPÖ General Secretary.

In the week before the election the polls show SPÖ in third place, with the margin of error giving first pace to either ÖVP or FPÖ (most likely is still ÖVP). Van der Bellen has said he would never swear in a FPÖ government, so if he resigns (when, arguably Austria needs him most), Austria is in constitutionally unchartered territory. Voters are choosing on popularity (Kurz) or the extreme nationalism of the least trusted leader (Strache), this is despite Kern being considered the most competent of the three leaders.
A Forgone Conclusion?

So, right-wing nationalist agendas are framing the election campaign and the election looks as if it will return a clear win for the ÖVP, but Kurz will need to find a coalition partner. Will FPÖ be that partner, given the way that ÖVP usurped the anti-immigrant agenda? And if it does, will acrimony blow the coalition apart? Or will SPÖ come back from the brink and coalesce with FPÖ. SPÖ have indicated they will talk to FPÖ. Either way, FPÖ are leading Austrian politics from an open democracy to nationalism. The people have rejected the more moderate grand coalition of ÖVP and SPÖ, and even if they hadn't, the relationship between the two parties is broken.

An ÖVP/FPÖ coalition will also reframe the economic environment with tax cuts for the wealthy and reduced worker protection. The future of Austria’s comfortable, safe and relatively equal society is at stake here. If Strache, as he says he is, is genuinely concerned with positive outcomes for the working class, maybe an SPÖ deal will suit his interests more, despite SPÖ’s more liberal, internationalist outlook. However, both parties would need to do better than expected because it is unlikely the Greens or Peter Pilz will work with FPÖ and the ‘centrist’ NEOS, has an economic agenda more in line with ÖVP than SPÖ. Kern also hints that he would rather remain in opposition than work with FPÖ or ÖVP - but is that just getting in first if neither of the other parties are interested in working with SPÖ?

This time around Europe is in no position to shun an Austrian far-right party in coalition, with parties across the continent, including Poland, Hungary and now Germany, all dealing with a surge in far-right support. It is not only Europe that is looking to ‘build a fence’ to deter migrants and refugees; Trump’s America has of course, already restricted immigration and the tough incarceration that Australia has implemented to deter migrants and refugees is increasingly considered a violation of human rights.

Another factor, is the position of Austria’s President Van der Bellen, who has a refugee background and is on record of saying he “places the greatest importance on a pro-European government” and refused to give a direct answer about preventing FPÖ from entering government. Will he resign if he has to swear in an FPÖ government? is junior coalition partner a step to far for him?

Will the voting public turn out, despite attempts to increase voting rates such as the introduction of postal ballots? Young people have been able to vote from age 16 since 2007 and last election 79% of those eligible voted, higher than the general population at 74%, but where will their votes go? The scandal-ridden election has the potential to turn voters away and lead to an increase in spoiled ballot papers. The outcome looks to be heading toward the worst possible outcome of neo-liberal economics (that Austria has managed to avoid for 30 years) and neo-fascism and it's too late to hope people see what this means for the country. 

News Items

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-election/austrians-roundly-reject-far-right-in-presidential-election-idUSKBN13S0W0

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36342362

http://www.politico.eu/article/austria-election-scandal-christian-kern-sebastian-kurz-haus-of-cards/

http://www.politico.eu/article/austria-far-right-joins-the-establishment-heinz-christian-strache/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/11/austria-faces-swerve-to-the-right-as-populist-party-dictates-election-agenda

https://www.gmx.at/magazine/politik/wahlen/nationalratswahl/exklusive-umfrage-nationalratswahl-christian-kern-kompetentesten-sebastian-kurz-liebster-direktkandidat-32574458

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/12/how-europes-far-right-fell-in-love-with-australias-immigration-policy

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-election-president/austrian-president-to-insist-on-pro-eu-government-after-election-idUSKCN1BN1BC